All analysis as at 21:00 Sunday 5th November.
We're fresh back from an evening in London at RM's sale. With the Graham Hill Collection delivering some phenomenal results in the afternoon, the big boys took center stage from 4:00 pm.
It was a tumultuous 4 hours as some remarkable cars came across the block and some remarkable results unfolded. The next few paragraphs will have you caught up nicely.
The Headlines
Right, let's start at the top.
What were the headlines from the sale yesterday evening?
62 vehicles were offered. 44 sold. 18 didn't. That's a sell-through rate (STR) of 71%.
That STR is below what RM delivered in London in 2022 (78%) but above what was delivered in 2021 (63%).
Buyer beware, however. The auction this year saw 39% of cars sell at no-reserve, that's near double what we saw in 2022 (20%) and still above 2021 (25%).
In other words, the STR is somewhat flattered by near 40% of cars selling at no reserve.
What about values?
Good question, glad you asked. Total sales value was £13.4m, that's down on 2022 which saw £27.2m. However, 2022 was a bumper year, 2021 saw £7.9m of cars sell.
Average sales value follows a similar pattern £216,060 this year, £715,635 in 2022 and £304,270 in 2021.
Of the 44 cars that sold, 23 of those (52%) sold below the lower-end of their estimate. Note: that's inclusive of commission being added in.
Only 6 cars (15%) broke through their upper estimate. That's the best result we've seen from RM in the past three years in London.
Another way of looking at the data is that if you took the midpoint of the estimates across all 62 cars in the auction, you'd see the sales price inclusive of premium was 16% below the midpoint on average and 14% below in the median case. For a bit of context, that number isn't awful, in actuality it's near the kind of figure we'd expect to see.
For the data nerds, the prior stat includes vehicles that didn't sell. For each of these we've taken the high bid the car reached and added buyers premium on top to ensure consistency.
The Highpoints
The sale struggled in some areas but we'll start with the positives.
6 world records were set. Well, kind of. Let us explain.
'Kind of' because a lot of the world records that came out of the sale were from models that had never been seen on the public market before or would've been world records had they sold.
One record that can't be questioned is the 2009 Mercedes-Benz SL 65 AMG Black Series. 835 miles on the clock, estimated at £275,000 - £325,000 and sold including commission for £353,750. A new world record by £1,095.
The Ferrari 512 TR Spider, one of three produced in 1993, estimated at £2.1m - £2.7m, sold for £2,226,875. This is the only 512 TR Spider sold publicly before so, naturally, was a world record.
One point of interest is that Gianni Agnelli's Testarossa Spider sold in 2016 for £920,871 by Artcurial.
RM also sold a Testarossa Spider last year for just shy of £1.5m - so they did very well with this vehicle. Check out our price guide for Testarossa Spider's here.
World records #3 and #4 were set with the 1927 Amilcar C6 (£161,000) and the 1925 Avions Voisin C5 Faux Cabriolet by Besset (£55,200). An Amilcar C6 and Avions Voisin C5 have never sold publicly before, making both world records. Worth noting that the C5 was far below the lower estimate of £80,000.
World records #5 and #6 were both from vehicles that didn't meet reserve and thus didn't sell. If they'd have sold at the high bid with buyers premium added in both would have been world records.
The cars in question: a 1952 Frazer Nash Targa Florio which reached a high bid of £340,000 and a 1991 Bentley Turbo R Drophead Coupé by Pininfarina, one of only two drophead coupes believed to exist which reached a high bid of £320,000.
So, kind of 6 world records.
What about the results that didn't go to plan?
The low points
Well, one could be mean here and tarnish the whole Factory Fresh Collection with that brush. That would be wrong.
For example, the Dino 246 GTS sold for £398,750 - bang in the middle of its estimate and 12% above the median price we've seen for these over recent years.
The Turbo R Drophead above was part of the collection and although it didn't meet reserve it still reached 7 times the record price for a regular Turbo R.
Having said that, there were some unbelievably good value results.
The 1993 Mondial T Cabriolet sold for £39,100. That doesn't seem like awful Mondial T money, until you realise that this car had 254 kilometres on the clock.
RM thought it would go better, with a pre-sale estimate of £120,000 - £170,000. That's a sale price 73% below the estimate midpoint...
A 1992 Ferrari Mondial T Coupe struggled. Estimated at £100,000 - £150,000. Sold at £34,500.
The world record for a 348 TS stands at £148,373 - this was a 5k mile car in great condition.
A 348 TS in average condition sells for £50,000 - £60,000 as per our price guide.
What I'm teeing up here is that this 348 TS is certainly more desirable than an average 348 TS. Arguably the mileage and condition combo place it towards the world record price also.
And yet, it sold for £48,300...
Gulp.
There are a plethora of other examples I could reel off but you get the point. We've listed the results from every sale at the bottom of this piece.
So, what's going on here? What's driving this?
It can be broken down into three factors:
Firstly, it goes without saying that the prices on the day simply didn't reflect the market value of these vehicles. For whatever reason, they reached nowhere near the market value they ought to.
Having said that, the money "they ought to" have reached isn't necessarily the estimates. In our opinion, many of these were far too optimistic and that was our opinion before seeing a single car go under the hammer. The condition of these cars was interesting too. For many of the super low-mileage vehicles the condition of the engine bay for example looked like they'd seen far more miles than what was on the clock.
Finally, the Factory Fresh Collection was all from Singapore. If the car sold was to be kept in the UK VAT and import duties would be due. In other words, for any buyer of one of the cars from the collection they're going to have to pay another 5% or 20% on top of the sales price depending if the car is over or under 30 years of age. Naturally, a drag on value.
It wasn't just the Factory Fresh Collection (or Ferrari's if you saw the pattern above) that struggled to get through the gears.
A Kuwait-based 1965 Aston Martin DB5 was far off its £525,000 - £575,000 estimate. It reached a high bid of £270,000. If it had sold that would have been £308,750.
That would've made it the lowest price for a standard DB5 since 2013 as per our price guide.
Rather bizarrely, RM sold another Kuwait-based, matching numbers DB5 earlier this year for £660,887. This car was LHD, rather than RHD car sold by RM in London. A £300,000+ delta between the two cars is near unexplainable aside from a weak bidding room on the day.
The Sales
Below runs through each vehicle that was offered by RM. Each price stated includes premium, for ease of comparison we've also added premium in where the vehicle didn't sell.
1996 Ferrari F310 Show Car // £100,050 (£60,000 - £80,000)
1886 Benz Patent-Motorwagen Replica // £32,200 (£18,000 - £24,000)
1902 Oldsmobile Model R 'Curved-Dash' Runabout // £41,400 (£40,000 - £50,000, Not Sold)
2003 BMW M3 CSL // £65,550 (£55,000 - £75,000)
1927 Amilcar C6 // £161,000 (£150,000 - £200,000)
1957 Lancia Aurelia B20 GT Coupé Series VI // £80,500 (£80,000 - £100,000)
1960 Ferrari 250 GT Coupé Series II by Pinin Farina // £325,625 (£375,000 - £425,000)
1957 Porsche 356 A 1600 Speedster by Reutter // £300,875 (£275,000 - £325,000)
1952 Bentley R-Type Continental Fastback Sports Saloon by H.J. Mulliner // £522,500 (£550,000 - £750,000, Not Sold)
1968 Ferrari Dino 206 GT by Scaglietti // £421,250 (£350,000 - £400,000)
1931 Bentley 8-Litre 'Silent Bloc' Saloon by Vanden Plas // £601,250 (£600,000 - £750,000)
1931 Avions Voisin C14 'Chartre' // £230,000 (£250,000 - £350,000, Not Sold)
1969 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona Berlinetta by Scaglietti // £477,500 (£480,000 - £540,000)
1929 Bentley 4½-Litre Supercharged Le Mans Tourer in the style of Vanden Plas // £815,000 (£750,000 - £900,000)
1933 Mercedes-Benz 370 S Mannheim Sport Cabriolet 'Project' // £280,625 (£150,000 - £180,000)
1963 Aston Martin DB5 'Project' // £342,500 (£300,000 - £350,000)
1963 Ferrari 250 GT/L Berlinetta Lusso by Scaglietti // £1,186,250 (£1,250,000 - £1,500,000)
1963 Aston Martin DB4 Convertible // £995,000 (£1,200,000 - £1,600,000, Not Sold)
1970 Aston Martin DB6 Mk 2 Vantage // £210,000 (£250,000 - £300,000)
1992 Ferrari 348 TS // £48,300 (£130,000 - £160,000)
1990 Ferrari Testarossa // £103,500 (£150,000 - £200,000)
2008 Ferrari 599 GTB Fiorano // £87,400 (£150,000 - £180,000)
1973 Ferrari Dino 246 GTS by Scaglietti // £398,750 (£350,000 - £450,000)
2000 Ferrari 550 Maranello // £109,250 (£120,000 - £170,000)
1992 Ferrari Mondial T Coupé // £34,500 (£100,000 - £150,000)
2001 Ferrari 550 Barchetta Pininfarina // £308,750 (£280,000 - £350,000)
2007 Ferrari F430 // £94,300 (£125,000 - £175,000)
1994 Ferrari 348 GTB // £48,300 (£120,000 - £160,000)
1992 Ferrari 512 TR // £275,000 (£260,000 - £320,000, Not Sold)
2010 Ferrari California // £94,300 (£100,000 - £150,000)
2008 Ferrari 599 GTB Fiorano // £113,850 (£150,000 - £180,000)
1969 Jaguar E-Type Series 2 4.2-Litre Roadster // £57,500 (£150,000 - £180,000)
1993 Jaguar XJ220 // £353,750 (£375,000 - £425,000, Not Sold)
1993 Ferrari Mondial T Cabriolet // £39,100 (£120,000 - £170,000)
1992 Ferrari 512 TR // £138,000 (£225,000 - £275,000)
1994 Ferrari 512 TR Spider // £2,226,875 (£2,100,000 - £2,700,000)
1992 Ferrari 348 TS // £64,400 (£130,000 - £160,000)
1991 Bentley Turbo R Drophead Coupé by Pininfarina // £365,000 (£375,000 - £475,000, Not Sold)
1979 Ferrari 400i // £46,000 (£50,000 - £80,000)
1988 Ferrari Testarossa // £170,200 (£150,000 - £200,000)
1956 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing // £1,130,000 (£1,250,000 - £1,500,000, Not Sold)
1929 Bentley Speed Six Le Mans Tourer in the style of Vanden Plas // £477,500 (£470,000 - £530,000, Not Sold)
1994 Nissan Skyline GT-R 'JGTCC-GT1' by Hasemi Motorsport // £230,000 (£225,000 - £275,000)
2009 Mercedes-Benz SL 65 AMG Black Series // £353,750 (£275,000 - £325,000)
1952 Frazer Nash Targa Florio // £387,500 (£400,000 - £500,000, Not Sold)
2007 Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren 722 Edition // £405,000 (£425,000 - £475,000)
1996 Porsche 911 Carrera 3.8 'X51' Coupé // £77,050 (£80,000 - £100,000)
1958 Bentley S1 Continental Drophead Coupé by Park Ward // £792,500 (£800,000 - £1,000,000, Not Sold)
2012 Ferrari 599 GTB 60F1 'Alonso Edition' // £207,000 (£200,000 - £250,000, Not Sold)
1990 Ferrari F40 // £1,962,500 (£1,900,000 - £2,100,000)
1960 Aston Martin DB4 Series II // £308,750 (£300,000 - £350,000, Not Sold)
1951 Lancia Aurelia B20 GT Coupé Series I // £69,000 (£100,000 - £150,000, Not Sold)
2000 Ferrari 550 Maranello WSR // £172,500 (£180,000 - £220,000, Not Sold)
1925 Avions Voisin C5 Faux Cabriolet by Besset // £55,200 (£80,000 - £140,000)
1964 Ferrari 330 GT 2+2 Series I by Pininfarina // £161,000 (£200,000 - £270,000, Not Sold)
1967 Maserati Mistral 4.0 Spyder by Frua // £297,500 (£270,000 - £320,000)
1965 Aston Martin DB5 // £308,750 (£525,000 - £575,000, Not Sold)
1961 AC Greyhound // £57,500 (£80,000 - £100,000)
1976 Porsche 911 (930) Turbo Coupé // £132,250 (£125,000 - £150,000)
1936 Lagonda LG45 Coupé de Ville Sedanca by Mayfair // £103,500 (£175,000 - £225,000, Not Sold)
2003 Porsche 911 (996) GT2 // £120,750 (£135,000 - £165,000)
1938 Rolls-Royce Wraith Drophead Coupé // £120,750 (£50,000 - £70,000)
The Takeaway
Despite the highly respectable 71% sell-through rate, it was flattered by 39% of cars being no reserve.
There's no denying some cars went extremely cheap. Ferrari's were particularly weak.
Although 52% of cars sold below their lower estimate, it must be caveated that estimates on many lots were particularly punchy.
In any case, it's the first auction we've seen with so many cars going for absolute steal prices. We'll be keeping a close eye to see if the pattern continues.
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