We’ve analysed the sales in November and compared them against the same period over the last decade. Ahead of our end-of-year round up, here’s the top 5 takeaways:
1 - Bargains
We’re seeing huge price volatility in the market at present, my Whatsapp and Instagram car groups are full of bargains but also dispersed amongst that is the occasional incredibly strong outlier results.
Of the most popular models we track, 57% saw values lower in November 2024 than they were in November 2023, the average fall sitting at 6%.
A big spread exists even looking by marque. Porsche saw prices fall 20% YoY, Jaguar saw prices up 9% YoY.
Before anyone jumps to any conclusions re Jaguar, British produced cars generally had a strong November with prices for British cars 33% higher than last year, contrast that to European produced vehicles which saw prices down 9% and US produced vehicles down 6%.
The above covers the market for vehicles of all ages. Classics saw similar price changes with prices down 6% on average year-on-year.
2 - Volume Down
November 2023 saw a huge increase in the number of vehicles being offered at auction, 44% more than in November 2022.
This November has seen the number of cars offered fall from the highs of the year before with 23% fewer cars coming to market this November.
If anything this was a blessing for prices.
Traditionally we see decreased supply as driving upwards pressure on prices. One could then infer that had the volume of vehicles offered at auction remained at the same levels as last year, then the price falls could’ve been even worse.
3 - Seller Hesitance
So, what’s going on behind the scenes?
Well imagine you’re looking to sell your car right now and you’re seeing prices all over the place, what would you do?
Most have seen this volatility and many who were considering selling have chosen to sit tight for now given the risk of achieving a sub-optimal price.
After all, human psychology heavily leans into loss aversion, the idea that people tend to feel the pain of a loss more intensely than the pleasure of a gain.
Loss aversion is playing out right now.
4 - Sell-Through Rate Stable
Sell-through rate in November 2024 was 4 percentage points higher than in November 2023.
This isn’t as it immediately appears on the surface. Underlying this data is an increase in no-reserve cars. No-reserve cars will of course sell at auction whatever happens, thus the increased presence of these cars naturally drives up the sell-through rate.
When the no reserve vehicles are stripped out the sell-through rate was 1 percentage point stronger than the same period last year.
5 - Context
Two bits of important context.
Firstly, it could’ve been a lot worse.
Without RMs two big sales at the end of the month in Munich and Las Vegas the average price falls could’ve been a lot more significant than they were above at 6%.
Secondly, sample size is important.
This is only one month’s data and whilst that gives us a sample of 4,500 vehicles to analyse in November 2024 alone the real test will be at the end of the year and looking back on the year overall.
Conclusion
In conclusion, prices are down in the region of 6% year-on-year with sellers sitting tight. Had we not seen the number of vehicles being offered fall 23% it’s highly likely the price declines would have been even greater. Do not despair, it’s just one month’s data and the end-of-year report will provide us some major conclusions on the year gone and indications for the year ahead.
The Top 10 Sales Of The Month
10 - 1954 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing // £1,445,000 (RM Sotheby's)
9 - 2005 Porsche Carrera GT // £1,563,300 (RM Sotheby's)
8 - 1965 Ferrari 275 GTB by Scaglietti // £1,748,750 (RM Sotheby's)
7 - 1957 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing “The Last One” // £1,852,800 (RM Sotheby's)
6 - 2006 McLaren-Mercedes MP4-21 Formula 1 // £1,930,000 (RM Sotheby's)
5 - 1989 Ferrari F40 // £1,973,750 (RM Sotheby's)
4 - 2015 Porsche 918 ‘Weissach’ Spyder // £2,076,680 (RM Sotheby's)
3 - 1929 Mercedes-Benz 710 SS Roadster by Corsica // £2,313,928 (RM Sotheby's)
2 - 1955 Porsche 550 Spyder by Wendler // £2,903,146 (RM Sotheby's)
1 - 1923 Mercedes Type 122 Indianapolis Racer // £3,020,900 (RM Sotheby's)
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