As Pebble Beach returns to its natural state as a golf course, as the masses head back to the airport and as the streets of Carmel no longer resemble a scene from a movie, it's time to look back on what we learnt from the auctions over Monterey Car Week 2024.
This post covers all the content we've produced from Monterey 2024, if you want to jump to a certain section, use the table of contents below to go right there.
Note: the analysis here focuses solely on the cars from Monterey, automobilia and bikes are excluded. Prices include premium. Estimate analysis does not include Mecum as no estimates are provided.
Table of Contents
Our Takeaways
1 - The $400,000,000 test - what happened?
Monterey was a $400,000,000 test of the market to see where we stand.
So how did Monterey score? Was there a continued "market crash" as some are calling it?
Well, yes and no.
Yes we did see 7% fewer cars come to market than the year before.
And, yes we did see total sales value fall 9%.
That doesn't equate to a market crash in our book though. It makes sense that should the total number of vehicles offered fall, you'd expect the total sales value to fall by a similar level.
More insightful is that we saw the average sale price fall 2% vs last year to $484,000.
Furthermore the number of vehicles selling at a price below their lower estimate was 49% - that's up from 45% the year before.
On the other hand, sell-through rate was at 69%, the same number as we saw last year and 1 percentage point up on the average sell-through rate so far this year.
Where does that leave us? Well, prices were down 2% on average and fewer vehicles met their lower estimate than the previous year but sell-through rate remained at the same level as last year.
Hardly a crash, hardly a rocket ship. Steady with some headwinds at a headline level.
Time to go deeper.
2 - Growing delta between buyers and sellers
There are multiple ways to tell this but whichever data point you pick the outcome is the same - sellers are looking for more than buyers are willing to pay.
Comparing estimates to the sale price is telling.
Across the auctions the midpoint of the estimate (e.g. a $100,000 - $150,000 estimate, would have a midpoint of $125,000) to the sales price, saw that the sale price was 8% below the estimate midpoint on average, and 12% below it in the median case.
For context, the delta at Monterey 2023 was -8% on average and -12% in the median case.
Down one more layer, as mentioned above we can see 49% of cars failed to meet their lower estimate (45% last year).
33% of cars failed to reach a price within their estimate range (down from 37% last year).
And only 17% of cars that sold exceeded the top end of the estimate (down from 18% last year).
To summarise: the delta between buyers and sellers from last year remains and has grown slightly.
3 - Strength from the 90s onwards
When you cut the data by decade you can start to see some incredibly clear trends within the decades that performed well and those that didn't.
Let's start with the positives.
The 90s onwards is where the strength is.
The 1990s, 2000s, 2010s and 2020s performed the best of all decades when you look across the sell-through rate and price achieved vs estimate.
The 2000s in particular was the strongest performing decade of all. Sell-through rate stood at 81% and 23% of cars exceeded their top estimate.
In the interests of transparency it's worth noting the 1900s delivered a 100% sell-through rate and the 1920s delivered a sell-through rate of 88%. However, only 2 vehicles from the 1900s and 8 vehicles from the 1920s were offered so not quite a reliable sample size.
What struggled?
Simplifying down: 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s struggled.
There were elements across these decades that were respectable. For example, vehicles from the 40s delivered a sell-through rate of 73% - that's above average.
On the whole though it was a tricky sale for those eras, sell-through rate averaged 64%, with the 1930s delivering a meagre 59% sell-through.
A bonkers 63% of vehicles from the 30s through to the 60s (inclusive) failed to meet their lower estimate.
When looking at the proportion that didn't exceed their top estimate that number rises to 89%...
4 - Strength at the lower end of the market
Monterey is perhaps most well-known for big ticket items.
Those $1,000,000+ cars dominate the headlines but the interesting thing was that of all the cars across different price points the top end of the market did the least well of all.
Intriguingly, as you move through the different price bands from lower value vehicles to higher value vehicles, the sell-through rate, as well as delta from estimate, presents a worse and worse picture.
For cars sub-$500,000 the data shows a strong resilient market, for the $1,000,000+ market real struggle - only 54% of cars sold and 60% of vehicles failed to reach their lower estimate.
Simplifying down, lower value vehicles performed far better than their more expensive counterparts.
5 - With a highly nuanced market across the board
To say there was or there is a market crash lacks nuance and sufficient detail.
The reality is in parts of the market there is real strength.
This nuanced picture continues when analysing the results by make. Looking at the most popular marques by volume at Monterey, at one end was Lancia, Maserati and Lamborghini where 59% of their vehicles sold on average. Bentley, Rolls-Royce and Bugatti topped the list with 85% of their vehicles sold.
Broad brush, "market crash" is headline grabbing drivel. Ignore it, it's never as simple as that.
But if we were asked to summarise the takeaways we're seeing, it's:
Similar headline numbers
Growing delta between buyers and sellers
Strength from the 90s onwards
Strength at the lower end of the market
With a highly nuanced market across the board
Hopefully these 5 headlines have helped you take away the key points from Monterey.
There's a whole lot more to digest, next up, the most expensive cars to sell.
The Top 10 Most Expensive Cars To Sell At Monterey 2024
10 - 1934 Alfa Romeo 8C 2300 Lungo Spider by Eagle Coach Works
An intriguing lot from RM, which was previously owned by iconic London dealer Jack Barclay. A winner of numerous concours awards the Alfa went to sale with an estimate of $4,500,000 - $6,000,000 and sold for $4,075,000.
9 - 1995 Ferrari 333 SP Evoluzione
One of 9 constructed by Dallara, chassis 010 achieved 11 podiums across the 1996 and 1997 IMSA WSC Championships. Despite being in the top 10 most expensive vehicles selling for $4,650,000 with Gooding & Co it missed its estimate of $6,000,000 - $8,000,000.
8 - 1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 NART Alloy
With NART history, back to original colours, Classiche certification and a 1st place in 24 Hours of Daytona this 275 GTB/4 had a lot of boxes ticked. Estimated at $5,000,000 - $7,000,000 it sold for $5,285,000.
7 - 1995 Ferrari F50
A new world record for an F50. And a rather intriguing one. Yes it was an ex-Cavallino Classic winner, Classiche certified but it had 8,556 miles on the clock. The previous world record was $5,395,000 for a Classiche certified car with 625 miles. Despite having c. 8,000 more miles on the clock this smashed through its $4,500,000 - $5,000,000 estimate to sell for $5,505,000.
6 - 1959 Ferrari 250 GT LWB California Spider
In the less desirable uncovered headlight version this 1 of 50 LWB was formerly owned by Jo Siffert. Estimated at $5,000,000 - $6,500,000 it sold for $5,615,000.
5 - 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 Rennversion
One of 9 customer GT1s constructed, this GT1 was raced at the 1997 Le Mans 24 Hours. It was the first time we've seen a non-Strassenversion come to market, the estimate was broad at $8,500,000 - $10,500,000, selling after 7 minutes of bidding at $7,045,000.
4 - 1969 Ford GT40 Lightweight
1 of 10 factory competition lightweight GT40s, it comes with its original body, chassis, engine and transaxle. Sold at $7,865,000.
3 - 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider
One of the most publicised cars going into Monterey, the previously stolen 8C 2900B. It has been 8 years since we've seen a Lungo Spider come to market. RM sold one in 2016 for $19,800,000. Gooding estimated theirs at $16,000,000 - $20,000,000, less than what the insurance company paid out for the vehicle at the point of theft. It sold for $12,750,000.
2 - 1955 Ferrari 410 Sport Spider
This was the prototype for the 410 Ferrari Works cars. Caroll Shelby and other American greats are intertwined across its history, restored in 2017 after being bought a few years earlier. The car was one of the few 50s big hitters to sell. It came with an estimate "in excess of $15,000,000". It sold for $12,895,000.
1 - 1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider
The very first 250 SWB Cali Spider built was offered by RM. Labelled the "finest, most important 250 GT SWB California Spider available" it came to the market with the desirable covered headlights, factory removable hardtop and a competition-spec engine. This Classiche example was estimated at $16,000,000 - $18,000,000. It sold for $17,050,000.
250 SWB Cali Spiders look to have levelled out, the 3 most recent examples have all sold in the $17-18 million range - the same prices we saw in 2016 when the last flurry of examples came to market. Regardless, this was the most expensive car sold to date this year.
That record is likely to be usurped later in the year when RM unleash the W196 Streamliner. That's for another time.
Cars That Flew
These are the cars that smashed through their estimates and flew at Monterey Car Week 2024.
The list here contains those cars that exceeded their estimates based upon dollar value or the percentage by which they exceeded their estimate.
5 - 1914 Bugatti Type 23 Tourer
Auction House: Gooding & Co
Estimate: $90,000 - $120,000
Sale Price: $220,000
Exceeded Top Estimate By: $100,000 or 83%
4 - 1974 Porsche 911 Carrera RS 3.0
Auction House: RM Sotheby's
Estimate: $1,600,000 - $1,800,000
Sale Price: $2,370,000
Exceeded Top Estimate By: $570,000 or 32%
3 - 1996 Porsche 911 GT2 Clubsport
Auction House: RM Sotheby's
Estimate: $1,100,000 - $1,400,000
Sale Price: $2,012,500
Exceeded Top Estimate By: $612,500 or 44%
2 - 1989 Mercedes-Benz 560 SL
Auction House: Broad Arrow
Estimate: $90,000 - $120,000
Sale Price: $260,400
Exceeded Top Estimate By: $140,400 or 117%
1 - 1965 Ford Mustang Convertible (Ex-Tom Petty)
Auction House: Bonhams
Estimate: $25,000 - $35,000
Sale Price: $224,000
Exceeded Top Estimate By: $189,000 or 540%
Cars That Flopped
There are two sides to every coin and there were also a number of cars that flopped. These are the cars that missed their lower estimate by the biggest margin.
5 - 1936 Riley 'Big Four' Special
Auction House: Bonhams
Estimate: $150,000 - $200,000
Sale Price: $75,600
Short of Bottom Estimate By: $74,700 or 50%
4 - 1995 Ferrari 333 SP Evoluzione
Auction House: Gooding & Co
Estimate: $6,000,000 - $8,000,000
Sale Price: $4,650,000
Short of Bottom Estimate By: $1,350,000 or 42%
3 - 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider
Auction House: Gooding & Co
Estimate: $16,000,000 - $20,000,000
Sale Price: $12,750,000
Short of Bottom Estimate By: $3,250,000 or 36%
2 - 2008 Dodge Challenger SRT8
Auction House: Bonhams
Estimate: $50,000 - $70,000
Sale Price: $22,400
Short of Bottom Estimate By: $27,600 or 55%
1 - 1928 Avions Voisin C11 Custom Roadster
Auction House: RM Sotheby's
Estimate: $275,000 - $325,000
Sale Price: $106,400
Short of Bottom Estimate By: $168,600 or 61%
There we have it, the ultimate guide to the most important classic car week in the calendar. It took us over 13 hours to pull together this article so if you enjoyed it, please sign up to our newsletter here to be the first to receive these insights and more.
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Till next year...
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